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BAX Curve Unwinds Increase In 2023-24 Yields

CANADA
  • BAX futures have unwound the 7.5bps increase in late 2023/early 2024 yields seen earlier to leave yields 3-4bps higher across the curve.
  • The net change on the day is led by broader risk-on sentiment, with little impact from local factors with only a minor improvement in weekly consumer confidence and housing starts per consensus not moving the needle.
  • It leaves the BAX curve with solid inversion of just over 50bps of cuts through 2023, catching up but not quite matching the 62.5bps in Eurodollars.
  • Local focus is squarely on June CPI on Wed, with a wide range to analyst calls but all expecting a further acceleration in the headline Y/Y.

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