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BAX Rate Path Moves Further Into Restrictive Territory

CANADA
  • BAX futures yields have surged to new highs today, led by the Dec’23 up 15.5bps for a 28bp rise since the close after the hawkish BoC statement on Jun 1.
  • Subsequent hawkish commentary from Dep Gov Beaudry on Jun 2 (“more forcefully” can involve both terms of pace and level of rates) continues to help rates rise at a faster pace than the day’s ~10bp rise in Eurodollars over the same portion of the curve.
  • The curve now crudely implies terminal policy rate between 3.25-3.5% through 2023, consistent with BoC-dated OIS firming to an implied overnight rate of 3.21% for Dec.
  • The increase beyond the BoC’s upper estimate of the 2-3% neutral range tallies well with the earlier MNI interview with ex-BoC researcher Ruge-Murcia on the need for restrictive monetary policy.

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