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BAX Yields Keep On Marching Higher

CANADA
  • BAX yields continue to firm, building on last week’s persistent increases and with implied rate expectations helping push front-end GoC yields increasingly towards cycle highs from June.
  • BAZ2 yields sits +4bps with again larger increase further out, led by BAZ3 +6.5bps.
  • Yield increases coupled with the recent trend narrowing in FRA-OIS helps push the roughly implied terminal policy rate of circa 3.75% in the Dec’22 contract, with BAX yields largely holding through the Mar’23 before just over 30bps of cuts to end’23.
  • Recall that this has been trimmed from 75bps of cuts priced in late July as 2023 yields continue to rise strongly on the prospect of rates being higher for longer, courtesy of Fedspeak but supported by latest strength in Canadian core CPI inflation.

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