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BBG Survey Loosely In Line With '23 ECB Market Pricing

STIR

With the pre-meeting ECB quiet period in play we look at the BBG survey ahead of next week’s decision.

  • The survey shows a near-even split when it comes to the hike/hold debate, with a slim majority (17/32) looking for no change next week.
  • Beyond next week’s meeting a similarly slim majority expect the deposit rate to peak at 4.00% in the current cycle (equating to 1 further 25bp hike from prevailing levels).
  • This outlook isn’t too dissimilar to market pricing, with a little under 10bp of tightening showing for next week, while terminal deposit rate pricing hovers between 3.90-3.95%.
  • The debate at next week’s meeting will centre on the trade off between soft economic activity data and still elevated (but slowing) inflation.
  • A slim majority in the BBG survey see the deposit rate at 3.75% by March, with 3x cuts in ’24 providing median expectation at present.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Sep-233.747+9.5
Oct-233.808+15.6
Dec-233.836+18.4
Jan-243.821+16.9
Mar-243.770+11.8
Apr-243.695+4.3
Jun-243.589-6.3
Jul-243.481-17.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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