BBG Survey Loosely In Line With '23 ECB Market Pricing

With the pre-meeting ECB quiet period in play we look at the BBG survey ahead of next week’s decision.

• The survey shows a near-even split when it comes to the hike/hold debate, with a slim majority (17/32) looking for no change next week.
• Beyond next week’s meeting a similarly slim majority expect the deposit rate to peak at 4.00% in the current cycle (equating to 1 further 25bp hike from prevailing levels).
• This outlook isn’t too dissimilar to market pricing, with a little under 10bp of tightening showing for next week, while terminal deposit rate pricing hovers between 3.90-3.95%.
• The debate at next week’s meeting will centre on the trade off between soft economic activity data and still elevated (but slowing) inflation.
• A slim majority in the BBG survey see the deposit rate at 3.75% by March, with 3x cuts in ’24 providing median expectation at present.