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BBVA Expect Easing As Soon As November

MEXICO
  • With falling inflation and a strong peso, BBVA expect Banxico to start a rate cut cycle in 4Q23 to avoid an additional increase in the already very high ex-ante real rate which is set to hover around 7.0% in the next few months.
  • Given that the peso strengthening has brought monetary conditions to restrictive territory, in a backdrop of falling inflation, after extending the pause during 2Q and 3Q Banxico should start a rate cut cycle in 4Q to avoid a further tightening of the monetary policy stance, even if the Fed is still in a pause.
  • A signal is not likely in the short term, but BBVA continue to expect that Banxico will start to cut rates as soon as in November.
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