MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI INTERVIEW2: Policy Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: SlovGB Auction Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -62 BCF TO 1,698 BCF MAR 07 WK

MNI: US FEB FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.0%, EX FOOD, ENERGY -0.1%

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BBVA on Argentina: Upgrades 2021 Growth Forecast

ARGENTINA
  • Last week, BBVA upgraded their GDP growth forecast for Argentina in 2021 from 6.5% to 7.5%, due to a lower-than-expected decline in 2Q21. However, economic activity will not be buoyant in the coming quarters, since the economy will have to process the current economic imbalances. They lowered the 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% (previously 3.5%).
  • The government suffered a major defeat in the primary midterm elections, which seems difficult to revert in November's general election. This unexpected outcome triggered tensions within the ruling coalition, which resulted in a cabinet reshuffling.
  • Inflation will remain high in 2021 (50% YoY) and will accelerate to 54% in 2022 (previously: 50%). They assume that there will be an adjustment of the exchange rate and public utility rates in 2022. The monetary overhang will be lower in 2022 and they expect a less expansionary monetary policy (slightly higher interest rates). However, money issuance to finance the Treasury and cover quasi-fiscal deficit will remain high, thus setting a high floor for inflation.
  • Baseline scenario assumes an IMF agreement by March 2022. For the resulting program to be consistent, it should include a progressive correction of the current fiscal, monetary and exchange rate imbalances, adjust relative prices (utility prices and exchange rate), define international reserves targets and economic reforms to restore genuine growth.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.