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BBVA Revise 2023 Growth Estimate to 0.6%, See Cycle Peak at 10.75%

MEXICO
  • BBVA has revised down its growth estimate for 2023 to 0.6% (previously 1.6%), given lower growth of domestic demand in an environment of high inflation, higher interest rates and lower growth in the US.
  • They have maintained this year’s growth estimate at 2.0%, considering the rebound in 1H22, but with a slowdown going forward. BBVA anticipate lower job growth than in their previous forecast with next year’s wage bill likely to show less dynamism.
  • BBVA expect inflation to edge lower by year-end and to more significantly ease over 2023, reaching levels around 4% by December. Banxico will not decouple from the Fed in the short term and will take the policy rate to 10.50% by year end and to a 10.75% cycle peak by February.
  • BBVA anticipate the peso to keep outperforming other emerging market currencies and to remain relatively strong; they forecast 20.3 and 20.5ppd exchange rate levels by year-end 2022 and 2023, respectively.
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