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BRAZIL: BCB Focus Survey, December Economic Activity

BRAZIL
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  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1125GMT(0625ET), with the usual forecasts for GDP, inflation and the Selic rate outlook. While year-end Selic rate expectations remained stable last week, at 15% for this year and 12.5% for next, CPI expectations continued to edge higher, while GDP forecasts were trimmed. Inflation is seen ending this year at 5.58%, before falling to 4.30% by the end of 2026, still towards the top of the BCB’s target band.
  • Following the Focus survey, the BCB will also release its economic activity index for December at 1200GMT(0700ET). Analysts expect activity to have fallen by 0.4% m/m in the final month of last year, following a 0.1% m/m gain in November. In annual terms, economic growth is seen moderating to 3.35% y/y, from 4.11%.
    • Dec. Economic Activity YoY, est. 3.35%, prior 4.11%
    • Dec. Economic Activity MoM, est. -0.40%, prior 0.10%
  • Meanwhile, President Lula is due to attend a Petrobras ceremony in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro state from 1300GMT(0800ET) today.
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  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1125GMT(0625ET), with the usual forecasts for GDP, inflation and the Selic rate outlook. While year-end Selic rate expectations remained stable last week, at 15% for this year and 12.5% for next, CPI expectations continued to edge higher, while GDP forecasts were trimmed. Inflation is seen ending this year at 5.58%, before falling to 4.30% by the end of 2026, still towards the top of the BCB’s target band.
  • Following the Focus survey, the BCB will also release its economic activity index for December at 1200GMT(0700ET). Analysts expect activity to have fallen by 0.4% m/m in the final month of last year, following a 0.1% m/m gain in November. In annual terms, economic growth is seen moderating to 3.35% y/y, from 4.11%.
    • Dec. Economic Activity YoY, est. 3.35%, prior 4.11%
    • Dec. Economic Activity MoM, est. -0.40%, prior 0.10%
  • Meanwhile, President Lula is due to attend a Petrobras ceremony in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro state from 1300GMT(0800ET) today.