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BCB Warn Tightening Cycle Could Resume

BRAZIL
  • The BCB kept rates unchanged late yesterday, broadly inline with expectations. Nonetheless, there were outside calls for one final 25bps hike to end the tightening cycle, but this failed to materialise. The vote split showed a minority opted for a final hike, with two directors going against the headline decision.
  • Focus turns to how long the BCB will keep rates at this level, as the board tilt toward a higher-for-longer strategy and look to hold rates for a “sufficiently long period”.
  • Nonetheless, upside risks of inflation were acknowledged, with the statement adding that they will not hesitate to resume a tightening path should the “disinflationary process not proceed as expected”.
  • Focus later today turns to the release of the economy ministry’s budget report and several rallies due to be held by President Bolsonaro across Belem and Manaus.
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