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BCCh Analyst Views

CHILE
  • Morgan Stanley: The central bank opted to maintain more hawkish rhetoric from its previous monetary policy report and meeting, stressing that two-year inflation expectations remain de-anchored and that risks to the disinflation process remain.
  • Barclays: The BCCh will have to be cautious regarding the start of the easing cycle. Barclays’ policy path remains above the midpoint of the corridor in the December IPoM in H1 2023. The BCCh will stay on hold in April and could start cutting only in May or June. They remain on the sidelines on rates.
  • JPMorgan: The Board had a mission going into the January policy meeting: to secure the disinflation path ahead by avoiding further easing of broad monetary conditions—in other words, to deliver a hawkish-flavoured statement. JPM maintain call of starting to trim the nominal policy rate in April, with a 50bp cut. They expect the policy rate to converge to 7.5% by December 2023, and 5.5% by the end of 2Q24.
  • Goldman Sachs: Their view for the path of monetary policy remains unchanged as it is paramount that the central bank remains conservative and maintains a restrictive monetary stance. As inflation and inflation expectations consolidate a trend downwards and the positive output gap narrows, GS expect the central bank to be able to move its nominal policy rate lower while upholding a restrictive monetary stance.
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