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BCCh Minutes Due Thursday, Goldman Sachs Looking For Discussion Of Cuts

CHILE
  • On Thursday, the BCCh will publish the minutes of the April 04 meeting where the board unanimously decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged at 11.25%. In line with prior comments from President Costa, the statement indicated that “the data for the end of 2022 and the turn of 2023 show that the economy's adjustment process has been slower than expected.”
    • On inflation, while acknowledging a dip in the headline figure, the statement highlighted that core inflation has been fairly constant and has accumulated “a significant upward surprise in recent months.” Furthermore, they now expect the process of inflation convergence to target will take longer than expected compared to expectations in December.
  • Goldman Sachs say that although the value of the MPC minutes got diluted given the detailed discussion contained in the March IPoM, they look forward to a discussion among MPC directors on their evaluation of the state of the macroeconomic rebalancing.
    • GS emphasize that the January meeting minutes showed that despite a unanimous decision to leave the policy rate unchanged, one Director viewed a small cut to the policy rate at that meeting as a valid option. Given the hawkish policy signals from the April post-meeting statement and the March IPoM, they will be attentive to whether any MPC member still entertained the possibility of cuts.
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