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BCCh Publishes Updated Ex-volatiles CPI Metric

CHILE
  • Following the update of the CPI basket by the National Statistical Agency (INE) last month, BCCh has revised its ex-volatiles CPI measure, which remains its preferred core inflation metric. In January, ex-volatiles inflation declined to 4.3% y/y, when using this new basket. This is down from 4.7% in December, if the new reference series is also applied to the historical data.
  • Going forward, JP Morgan highlight the important point that for the rest of this year, INE and BCCh will report two different y/y prints for headline inflation. The official figure reported by INE will add the m/m changes under the new CPI basket to the remaining months under the prior basket. BCCh by contrast, has revised the previous 12 months m/m CPI changes under the new basket.
  • This means the y/y CPI figure used by BCCh for MPC decisions will differ from the official y/y rate reported by INE, until their convergence at year-end. For example, headline inflation reported by INE was 3.8% y/y in January and is expected to rise to 4.1% in February, according to the Bloomberg consensus. By contrast, the measure reported by BCCh was tracking at 3.2% in January, with the difference explained by the increased weight of goods vs. services in the new basket.
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