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BCRP: Analyst Views

PERU
  • Deutsche Bank see BCRP raising rates today, although see the bank hesistating on rate hikes above 5.50%. They write that they see Peru as the least sensitive to external developments against their regional peers, but rising inflation turnouts and inflation expectations will likely force their hand.
  • Goldman Sachs write that they expect another 50bp hike, driving the policy rate to 6.00%. They see continued upside surprises in inflation keeping the outlook challenging, with political uncertainty significant. They see further hikes down the line in 2022 to reach a terminal level of 7.00% and expect policy to remain moderately restrictive (slightly above neutral) over the relevant policy horizon.
  • JPM see the upside surprise in Lima CPI as further evidence the bank willl maintain its tightening pace, hiking 50bp today and leaving the door open to additional tightening. They see inflation as not yielding, with core inflation gaining momentum when adjusted for seasonality, despite the slack prevailing in the economy. JPM see fuel and food pressures as likely more persistent in Peru, while government measures had less of an impact than originally entertained.
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