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BCRP Meeting In Focus, All Analysts Expecting Unchanged Decision

PERU
  • With no other domestic data points this week, the sole focus will be on the BCRP meeting/decision on Thursday, June 08 with the announcement expected around 1900ET.
  • As a reminder, last week Lima headline inflation registered at 0.32% M/m in May, which was close to the Bloomberg median surveyed estimate. This saw the annual headline CPI rate decrease to 7.9%. It is expected that the board will reiterate that the downward trend in yoy inflation is forecast to continue in the following months, with a return to the target range in Q4 of this year.
  • So far, all ten estimates within the Bloomberg survey and all previews for this meeting seen by MNI are expecting an unchanged decision, with the BCRP holding the reference rate at 7.75%. We will publish a preview with a selection of sell-side views in the lead up to the meeting.
  • While Goldman Sachs believe the probability of further tightening is very low, they do caution that the MPC should preserve a restrictive stance against a still challenging macro backdrop with inertial headline inflation, above-target inflation expectations, and an unsettled political and social backdrop. Moreover, even though headline inflation is softening, it is set on a trajectory to overshoot the inflation target band in 2023, contrary to the central bank’s expectation.
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