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PERU: BCRP MPC Meeting Due This Week

PERU
BulletPeruEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Focus in Peru this week will be on the BCRP interest rate decision on Thursday. After leaving its reference rate unchanged as expected at 5.00% last month, a slight majority of analysts (5/8) in the latest Bloomberg survey are forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% this week. The rest of the analysts expect the central bank to remain on hold.
  • In its policy statement last month, the BCRP indicated that it remains in data dependent mode, and did not commit to any particular future action. Since that meeting, economic activity data came in slightly above expectations, while CPI inflation dipped back below the central bank’s target to 1.97% y/y in December. While the CPI data will be a welcome development for the committee, a more hawkish Fed may still offset any immediate prospects for further easing. A full MNI preview of the meeting, with analyst views, will be published later this week.
  • Since the December MPC meeting, the Peruvian sol has come under some modest pressure, with USDPEN rising to 3.7680 last week. BBVA notes that the reference level of the USDPEN range midpoint remains 3.75 and that overall the moves have still been very tight, with 3.70 as support and 3.80 above.
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  • Focus in Peru this week will be on the BCRP interest rate decision on Thursday. After leaving its reference rate unchanged as expected at 5.00% last month, a slight majority of analysts (5/8) in the latest Bloomberg survey are forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% this week. The rest of the analysts expect the central bank to remain on hold.
  • In its policy statement last month, the BCRP indicated that it remains in data dependent mode, and did not commit to any particular future action. Since that meeting, economic activity data came in slightly above expectations, while CPI inflation dipped back below the central bank’s target to 1.97% y/y in December. While the CPI data will be a welcome development for the committee, a more hawkish Fed may still offset any immediate prospects for further easing. A full MNI preview of the meeting, with analyst views, will be published later this week.
  • Since the December MPC meeting, the Peruvian sol has come under some modest pressure, with USDPEN rising to 3.7680 last week. BBVA notes that the reference level of the USDPEN range midpoint remains 3.75 and that overall the moves have still been very tight, with 3.70 as support and 3.80 above.