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MNI BanRep Review – Jan 2025: Easing Cycle Paused

The Colombian central bank decided to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.50% at its January meeting.
Bank of Rep (Colombia) - ReviewHomepageLatAm Bank - ReviewAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank ReviewStory

Executive Summary

  • The Colombian central bank decided to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.50% at its January meeting. While a majority of analysts had expected a 25bp cut, risks were skewed towards a pause in the easing cycle.
  • The decision was split 5-2, with one member voting for a 25bp cut and another for a 50bp reduction. Concerns over inflation risks and rising inflation expectations prompted the central bank to stay on hold.
  • However, the Board signalled that rate cuts will continue, at a pace dependent on the incoming data, and analysts still expect a 25bp cut in March, with the policy rate ending the year around 7.50-8.25%.

Click to view the full review: MNI BanRep Review - January 2025.pdf

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Executive Summary

  • The Colombian central bank decided to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.50% at its January meeting. While a majority of analysts had expected a 25bp cut, risks were skewed towards a pause in the easing cycle.
  • The decision was split 5-2, with one member voting for a 25bp cut and another for a 50bp reduction. Concerns over inflation risks and rising inflation expectations prompted the central bank to stay on hold.
  • However, the Board signalled that rate cuts will continue, at a pace dependent on the incoming data, and analysts still expect a 25bp cut in March, with the policy rate ending the year around 7.50-8.25%.

Click to view the full review: MNI BanRep Review - January 2025.pdf