MNI BRIEF: US Budget Deficit At $1.15T Thru Feb

MNI BRIEF: BOC Saw Little Need For A 50BPs Rate Cut

BOC DID NOT SERIOUSLY CONSIDER A 50BP RATE CUT- MACKLEM

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil's Inflation Rises To 5.06% In Feb

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, March 12

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Environmental Equipment Industry

MNI: US FEB TREASURY BUDGET -$307.0B

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-month UKTB Due Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Greece Synd / Italy Auction Thurs

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

PERU: BCRP Seen Extending Rate Pause This Week

PERU
BulletPeruEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Focus this week is on the BCRP interest rate decision on Thursday, when a majority of analysts expect the central bank to remain on hold at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting. Although inflation fell to a seven-month low in February, resilient domestic uncertainty and ongoing tariff uncertainties may prompt a cautious stance as the central bank nears the end of its easing cycle. A full MNI preview of the meeting, with analyst views will be published ahead of the meeting.
  • JP Morgan expects the BCRP to keep the policy rate stable through the second quarter of the year but still sees room for an additional 50bp in easing in H2, allowing the policy rate to converge to neutral levels. BBVA also expects no change in rates this week, although they note that recent rate decisions have had no major impact on the PEN, which has benefited from high gold and copper prices. Their preference is still to be short USDPEN, although technicals could get heavier below the 3.65 mark.
  • In contrast, Scotiabank expects a 25bp cut this week, aided by the very low inflation print and recent appreciation of the sol. They note that while the BCRP has cut by 300bp since late 2023, it has adopted an oscillating cut-skip pattern of moves across the last six meetings and this may be the turn for another cut especially in light of volatile US policy and market effects.
236 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Focus this week is on the BCRP interest rate decision on Thursday, when a majority of analysts expect the central bank to remain on hold at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting. Although inflation fell to a seven-month low in February, resilient domestic uncertainty and ongoing tariff uncertainties may prompt a cautious stance as the central bank nears the end of its easing cycle. A full MNI preview of the meeting, with analyst views will be published ahead of the meeting.
  • JP Morgan expects the BCRP to keep the policy rate stable through the second quarter of the year but still sees room for an additional 50bp in easing in H2, allowing the policy rate to converge to neutral levels. BBVA also expects no change in rates this week, although they note that recent rate decisions have had no major impact on the PEN, which has benefited from high gold and copper prices. Their preference is still to be short USDPEN, although technicals could get heavier below the 3.65 mark.
  • In contrast, Scotiabank expects a 25bp cut this week, aided by the very low inflation print and recent appreciation of the sol. They note that while the BCRP has cut by 300bp since late 2023, it has adopted an oscillating cut-skip pattern of moves across the last six meetings and this may be the turn for another cut especially in light of volatile US policy and market effects.