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BCRP To Continue With Its Gradual Easing Cycle

PERU
  • Most analysts expect the BCRP to continue with its gradual easing cycle at 2300GMT(1800ET), delivering another 25bp cut which would bring the reference rate down to 6.00%. However, one analyst expects the central bank to stay on hold at 6.25%, pausing the cycle after six consecutive 25bp moves.
  • The general view is that weak GDP growth, the decline in inflation expectations and recent appreciation of PEN against the US dollar still support the case for further gradual easing. However, there is some caution emerging among analysts over declining interest rate differentials, given the shift in Fed rate cut expectations. The recent increase in CPI inflation also gives BCRP little room to step up the pace of easing.
  • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • In other news, congress voted 91 to 31 yesterday to change the constitution and revive the Senate, 32 years after it was dissolved by then President Fujimori. Because the reform received support from a super majority within congress, it will not require a national referendum, but will pass to President Boluarte to sign it into law. The reconstituted senate will have 60 members elected in general elections slated for 2026.
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