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Vulnerable Despite Recent Bounce


Timeline of key events (Times GMT)


Probes Key Short-Term Support


Timeline of key events (Times GMT)


Recovery Extends

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The Treasury curve is bear flattening to start the week, with global short-end FI selling off in sympathy with UK rate hike expectations being brought forward aggressively.

  • 2-Yr yields hit a fresh cycle high (0.4436%) as the UK short-end blew out (2Y UK yields up most since 2010). The 2-Yr yield last up 4.1bps at 0.4355%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 1.1798%, 10-Yr is up 4.2bps at 1.6125%, and 30-Yr is up 2.1bps at 2.0619%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 14/32 at 130-17 (L: 130-15 / H: 130-30), just under 700k traded.
  • The session's data highlight is Sept industrial production at 0915ET; we also get NAHB house prices at 1000ET. TIC flows at 2100ET as well.
  • Minn Fed's Kashkari speaks at 1415ET. Earlier, Gov Quarles discussed digital assets (eg cryptocurrencies), nothing on current mon pol.
  • In supply, $93B combined in 13-/26-week bill auctions at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$2.025B in 22.5-30Y Tsys.