MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 10

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US TSYS: Bear Flatter Ahead Of Payrolls, TY Nearer To Support

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries sit bear flatter ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report for December – MNI NFP Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Jan2025_Preview_cf189ac187.pdf
  • Cash yields are 1-2.5bp higher on the day, with increases led by the front end after hawkish commentary from St Louis Fed’s Musalem (’25 voter) plus a strong increase in oil futures.
  • Long yields again lag increases in EGBs and Gilts in particular.
  • 2s10s has been trimmed to 41.5bp (-1.2bp) but continues to sit close to recent highs of 43.5bp.
  • TYH5 has recently touched a session low of 108-01 (-06), through yesterday’s mourning-shortened session but not testing Wednesday’s 107-28+.
  • Cumulative volumes are depressed at 235k with payrolls in focus.
  • The bearish trend sequence remains in place and clearance of that support could open 107-21+ (May 29, 2024 low, cont.), whilst to the upside there is resistance at 109-01 (20-day EMA).
  • Data: Nonfarm payrolls Dec (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Jan P (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee on CNBC (1004ET)
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  • Treasuries sit bear flatter ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report for December – MNI NFP Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Jan2025_Preview_cf189ac187.pdf
  • Cash yields are 1-2.5bp higher on the day, with increases led by the front end after hawkish commentary from St Louis Fed’s Musalem (’25 voter) plus a strong increase in oil futures.
  • Long yields again lag increases in EGBs and Gilts in particular.
  • 2s10s has been trimmed to 41.5bp (-1.2bp) but continues to sit close to recent highs of 43.5bp.
  • TYH5 has recently touched a session low of 108-01 (-06), through yesterday’s mourning-shortened session but not testing Wednesday’s 107-28+.
  • Cumulative volumes are depressed at 235k with payrolls in focus.
  • The bearish trend sequence remains in place and clearance of that support could open 107-21+ (May 29, 2024 low, cont.), whilst to the upside there is resistance at 109-01 (20-day EMA).
  • Data: Nonfarm payrolls Dec (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Jan P (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee on CNBC (1004ET)