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Bear-Steepener Ahead Of BoJ Policy Decision Despite Tokyo CPI Miss
In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are holding around overnight closing levels, -36 compared to settlement levels, after the spike lower after lower-than-expected Tokyo CPI is quickly reversed.
- Tokyo's April CPI print was much weaker than expectations. The headline was 1.8% y/y, versus 2.5% projected (prior was 2.6%). The ex-fresh food measure was 1.6% y/y, versus 2.2% forecast (2.4% prior). The ex-fresh food, energy measure was 1.8% y/y in April (2.7% forecast and 2.9% prior).
- Momentum on the core measures is back to 2022 levels, while headline printed 1.8%y/y back in January. The core ex-energy and all food index eased back to 1.4% y/y from 2.3% in March.
- (MNI) At today's meeting, we expect the BoJ to maintain its target range for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0-0.1%. This aligns with the BoJ's consistent messaging since the March rate hike, which emphasised a data-dependent, "wait and see" approach. A consecutive rate hike at this juncture would likely convey a conflicting signal. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
- The cash JGB curve bear-steepened, with yields flat to 3bps higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 3.1bps higher at 0.930% after pushing to a fresh YTD yield high of 0.933%.
- The swaps curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20s, with rates -3bps to +4bps. Swap spreads are tighter out to the 30-year.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.