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Bear Steepening Overnight, With Retail Sales Ahead

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries have weakened with the curve steepening in overnight trade, underperforming European core FI but in line with modest JGB declines. Retail sales data coming up.

  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 5.5/32 at 133-20 (L: 133-17.0 / H: 133-25.5) No particular macro drivers, and low-ish volumes (~220k front TYs traded). Equities bouncing a little.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.1bps at 0.2336%, 5-Yr is up 2.1bps at 0.7959%, 10-Yr is up 2.3bps at 1.3221%, and 30-Yr is up 3.2bps at 1.9525%.
  • June retail sales data at 0830ET is expected to see another monthly decline (-0.3% M/M vs -1.3% prior) as stimulus effects fade and auto sales abate. Ex-auto seen +0.4% M/M (-0.7% prior), ex-auto and gas +0.5% (-0.8% prior).
  • UMich sentiment and business inventories out at 1000ET, TIC flows out later at 1600ET.
  • NY Fed's Williams speaks at 0900ET, but as a "culture in the workplace" event that may have little current monetary policy content.
  • No supply. NY Fed buys ~$3.225B of 7-10Y Tsys.
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