Bear Steepening With A Fresh Cycle High For The 10Y Yield

TYZ3 is currently trading at 106-21, +0-00+ from NY closing levels.

• Cash tsys finished 5-14bps cheaper across major benchmarks, with a steepening of the curve. The 10-year yield reached a fresh cycle high of 4.8081%.
• Fast two-way trade was noted midmorning as tsys gapped cheaper into the release of higher-than-expected JOLTS Job Openings (9.610M vs. 8.808M est, 8.827M prior), trading desks cited stops triggered ahead of the release.
• The move down in tsy futures confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, according to MNI’s technicals team. Support at 107-05+ has given way, with market focus on 106-23, a Fibonacci projection point, at the low. On the upside initial firm resistance is seen at 108-27, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a possible base. For now, gains are considered corrective.
• Cleveland Fed Mester did little to dissuade the tsy sell-off as she reiterated that a last quarter-point rate increase by December is likely needed and rates will stay restrictive "for some time" to get inflation back to goal by the end of 2025.
• Focus now turns to the scheduled economic data later today, including ADP Private Employment and ISM Services.