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MNI Gilt Week Ahead

We look ahead to Pill's EAC testimony and what recent MPC speakers mean for monetary policy going forward.
HomepageCEEMEAGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKUKMarketsStory
  • We domestic week ahead should be a bit less eventful, but we look ahead to Pill's EAC appearance tomorrow to see if he comments on his view surrounding the balance of risks.
  • We look back at recent comments from Lombardelli and Dhingra today as well as last week's TSC testimonies and Ramsden's speech.
  • Markets only price in about a 10% probability of a 25bp cut at present, and are broadly aligned with our view that there will be 25bp cuts in both February and May.
  • The outlook thereafter in our view is much more dependent upon how much the employer NI and national living wage increases are passed on through inflation (we are concerned it will be more than that BOE forecast). The annual setting of many services CPI components will take place in April / May, too, so we will have a much better idea by the June meeting if the MPC was to step up the pace from there, stick to quarterly or slow down (with the market expecting the latter, only pricing in around 30bp of cuts between May and December 2025).

For the full document including a syndication preview for the week ahead see: GiltWeekAhead20241125.pdf

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  • We domestic week ahead should be a bit less eventful, but we look ahead to Pill's EAC appearance tomorrow to see if he comments on his view surrounding the balance of risks.
  • We look back at recent comments from Lombardelli and Dhingra today as well as last week's TSC testimonies and Ramsden's speech.
  • Markets only price in about a 10% probability of a 25bp cut at present, and are broadly aligned with our view that there will be 25bp cuts in both February and May.
  • The outlook thereafter in our view is much more dependent upon how much the employer NI and national living wage increases are passed on through inflation (we are concerned it will be more than that BOE forecast). The annual setting of many services CPI components will take place in April / May, too, so we will have a much better idea by the June meeting if the MPC was to step up the pace from there, stick to quarterly or slow down (with the market expecting the latter, only pricing in around 30bp of cuts between May and December 2025).

For the full document including a syndication preview for the week ahead see: GiltWeekAhead20241125.pdf