MNI BRIEF: ECB Policy Decisions Based On Broad Analysis- Lane

MNI BRIEF: Less Than Half Canada Firms See Inflation Obstacle

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.01% In Week of Nov 22

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY76.7 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1918 Mon; -1.35% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 2/3-Month ATB Auction on Tuesday

MNI: BELGIUM NOV BNB BUSINESS SURVEY -11.1

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, DE Due on Tuesday

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Gilt Week Ahead

We look ahead to Pill's EAC testimony and what recent MPC speakers mean for monetary policy going forward.
HomepageCEEMEAGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKUKMarketsStory
  • We domestic week ahead should be a bit less eventful, but we look ahead to Pill's EAC appearance tomorrow to see if he comments on his view surrounding the balance of risks.
  • We look back at recent comments from Lombardelli and Dhingra today as well as last week's TSC testimonies and Ramsden's speech.
  • Markets only price in about a 10% probability of a 25bp cut at present, and are broadly aligned with our view that there will be 25bp cuts in both February and May.
  • The outlook thereafter in our view is much more dependent upon how much the employer NI and national living wage increases are passed on through inflation (we are concerned it will be more than that BOE forecast). The annual setting of many services CPI components will take place in April / May, too, so we will have a much better idea by the June meeting if the MPC was to step up the pace from there, stick to quarterly or slow down (with the market expecting the latter, only pricing in around 30bp of cuts between May and December 2025).

For the full document including a syndication preview for the week ahead see: GiltWeekAhead20241125.pdf

195 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • We domestic week ahead should be a bit less eventful, but we look ahead to Pill's EAC appearance tomorrow to see if he comments on his view surrounding the balance of risks.
  • We look back at recent comments from Lombardelli and Dhingra today as well as last week's TSC testimonies and Ramsden's speech.
  • Markets only price in about a 10% probability of a 25bp cut at present, and are broadly aligned with our view that there will be 25bp cuts in both February and May.
  • The outlook thereafter in our view is much more dependent upon how much the employer NI and national living wage increases are passed on through inflation (we are concerned it will be more than that BOE forecast). The annual setting of many services CPI components will take place in April / May, too, so we will have a much better idea by the June meeting if the MPC was to step up the pace from there, stick to quarterly or slow down (with the market expecting the latter, only pricing in around 30bp of cuts between May and December 2025).

For the full document including a syndication preview for the week ahead see: GiltWeekAhead20241125.pdf