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Bear Steepening With TY Futures Firmly Clearing Latest Support

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are off lows but have nevertheless seen a sizeable bear steepening today, with the front end currently little changed on the day but the longer end some 6-6.5bps cheaper. Gaza aid headlines appear to have helped the steepening.
  • 20s have led, despite the 20Y auction trading through by 1.2bp to break a 4-auction streak of tailing offerings across tenors in late Sept-early Oct. That auction did however elicit a quick 3bp rally on the results that has ultimately held after some gyrations.
  • TYZ3 has firmly cleared prior support at 106-03+ (Oct 4 low) with a low of 105-24, currently at 105-29 (-10) to next open 105-05+ (2% 10-dma envelope).
  • You can see a round-up of Fedspeak from today’s US session in the previous STIR bullet, with Harker (’23 voter) currently speaking but no headlines as of yet after earlier telling the WSJ the Fed should extend its pause on rate hikes.
  • Powell is clearly the main focus tomorrow at 1200ET, whilst data could provide some interest with initially jobless claims for a payrolls reference week along with existing homes sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey.
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