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Late SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup

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Bears Watch for Close Below 20-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 1.4040 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bear cycle
  • RES 3: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.4000 Psychological round number
  • RES 1: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.3614 @ 16:09 BST Oct 25
  • SUP 1: 1.3607 Low Oct 24
  • SUP 2: 1.3503 Low Oct 4 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 1.3448 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Sep 21

USDCAD pierced the 20-day EMA support Tuesday, reversing the entirety of the week’s early bounce. A close below here would be a bearish development and work against the broader uptrend. For now, th recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, is reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and 1.3838, Sep 30 high has been cleared. A clear break and close below the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a pullback towards 1.3503, Oct 4 low.

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