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MNI is the leading provider
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The governor of Russia's Belgorod oblast has declared a state of emergency as Ukraine's military advance into the neighbouring Kursk oblast continues. Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said the situation in Belgorod was "extremely difficult and tense". The region has come under attack from Ukrainian shelling as well as drones, with Russia claiming to have shot down 117 Ukrainian UAVs overnight in the Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod and Nizhny Novgorod regions.
With the Ukrainian advance into Kursk continuing (see 'SECURITY: Ukrainian Forces Continue To Advance In Kursk Region - Zelenskyy', 1752BST 13 Aug), there will be significant focus on the next objectives for Kyiv.
- There is the prospect that having clearly demonstrated to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people that the war will involve the infliction of pain on the Russian population as well as Ukraine, Kyiv begins to withdraw its forces to fight another day before the numerical advantage of Russian reinforcements risks their encirclement.
- Alternatively, Kyiv could seek to establish a more permanent bridgehead on Russian territory. This would require a greater redeployment of Russian forces from the Donbas and provide Ukraine with greater negotiating power come any potential ceasefire talks in the future.
Map of Ukrainian Military Incursion Into Russia
Source: CNN, Institute for the Study of War., AEI’s Critical Threats Project, Russian Ministry of Defence, Krasnoyaruzhsky district administration, Kursk regional governor, TASS. Data as of Aug. 12, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.