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Belly-Led Rally Ahead Of Revised GDP, Claims and 5Y TIPS Supply

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have continued to rally after yesterday’s volatile but ultimately richer session, outperforming core EU FI which sees some cheapening impetus from De Guindos reiterating the ECB is poised for further tightening ahead. The belly leads the move richer today, ahead of further revisions to GDP in Q3 plus weekly jobless claims and the Kansas Fed manufacturing index.
  • Supply from 5Y TIPS after yesterday’s consecutive 20Y stopping through, with the 5Y breakeven at 2.38% almost back to pre-CPI miss levels having dipped to 2.2% in days following the FOMC decision.
  • 2YY -1.1bps at 4.202%, 5YY -1.9bps at 3.750%, 10YY -1.5bps at 3.647% and 30YY -0.1bps at 3.713%.
  • TYH3 trades 7+ ticks higher at 113-25+, pulling further off yesterday’s low of 113-09+ (initial support). Resistance is seen at 114-23 (Dec 19 high). Volumes are notably softer heading into the Christmas break.
  • Data: GDP/PCE Q3 third release (0830ET), Weekly claims (0830ET), Leading index (1000ET), KC Fed mfg (1100ET)
  • Bond issuance: $19B 5-Year TIPS re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: $45B 4W, $45B 8W bills (1130ET)
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