MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Bull Flag Formation    

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Flag Formation     

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the recent pause in the trend still appears to be flag formation. Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement.
• A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and S/T gains appear to be corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in the break of a key support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper correction. This has opened  1.2584, the May 15 low. The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to appreciate. Last week’s breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. AUDUSD is unchanged and the pair continues to trade inside a range. Resistance has been defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important  short-term directional triggers. 
• Gold is unchanged and is trading in consolidation mode. A bear threat remains present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2319.3. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Tuesday, before giving back some gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme.  
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The move lower Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. The contract remains soft and the move down does undermine a recent bullish theme. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance         

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2:  1.0791/0820 50.0% and 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg  
• RES 1: 1.0770/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 
• PRICE: 1.0742 @ 05:57 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.0710/0666 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2  

EURUSD is trading below Monday’s 1.0776 high. The trend is unchanged, it remains bearish and gains appear to be a correction. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0770, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would threaten the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.0820, 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg. The bear trigger is 1.0666, Jun 26 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play      

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12 And the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2683 @ 06:08 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.2613 Low June 27
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15 
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support     

A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and S/T gains appear to be corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in the break of a key support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper correction. This has opened  1.2584, the May 15 low. For bulls, stronger recovery and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high. A break would highlight an early reversal signal.   

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact                        

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8548 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8501 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8468 @ 06:35 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25    
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP has traded higher recently. For now, the cross remains below an important resistance at 0.8501, the 50-day EMA. The recovery since Jun 14 appears to be a correction. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.   

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate   

• RES 4: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing      
• RES 3: 163.00 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.82 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 161.83 @ 06:21 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 160.26/159.07 Low Jun 28 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 157.35 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low  
• SUP 3: 157.03 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to appreciate. Last week’s breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.07.  

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 175.06 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing  
• RES 1: 173.98 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• PRICE: 173.832 @ 07:04 BST Jul 03
• SUP 1: 172.28 Low Jul 1 
• SUP 2: 170.91 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 169.34/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross continues to climb - price has traded to a fresh cycle high today. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are also in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Sights are on 173.98, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 170.91, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3                  
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg   
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12  
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.6677 @ 07:56 BST Jul 03
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg 

AUDUSD is unchanged and the pair continues to trade inside a range. Resistance has been defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important  short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Looking at MA studies, they remain in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.   

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA                

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3676 @ 08:04 BST Jul 3 
• SUP 1: 1.3626/3590 Low Jun 25 / Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

For now, USDCAD continues to trade above its most recent lows. Price has again attempted a breach of support around the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3679. A clear break of this average would threaten a bullish theme and expose support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish and a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Maintains A Softer Tone                                     

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28  
• RES 1: 131.69 50-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 130.46 @ 05:33 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 130.28 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally           
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support 

Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The move lower Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Conditions Remain Intact                                        

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28   
• RES 1: 116.296 20-day EMA            
• PRICE: 115.890 @ 05:55 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 115.810 Low Jul 1     
• SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally    
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support 

Bobl futures started this week on a bearish note and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, opening 115.556, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bearish Threat                             

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21       
• RES 1: 105.611/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28 
• PRICE: 105.525 @ 06:09 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 105.475 Low Jul 1        
• SUP 2: 105.440 61.8% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle   

Schatz futures traded lower Monday and the contract breached support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.611. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.440, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.                     

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle                                 

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• RES 1: 97.72 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 96.90 @ Close Jul 2 
• SUP 1: 96.57 Low Jul 1      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. The contract remains soft and the move down does undermine a recent bullish theme. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 98.24, the Jun 28 high.  

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bearish Theme Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.08/117.09 20-day EMA / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 115.33 @ Close Jul 2
• SUP 1: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures traded lower last week and the contract has started this week on a soft note. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low, where a breach would strengthen a bearish theme. Key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish     

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5039.84 61.8% retracement of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off   
• PRICE: 4963.00 @ 06:25 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would be a positive development. A reversal lower would instead signal a resumption of the bearish corrective cycle that started May 16 and open 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bullish Continuation Pattern  

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20  
• PRICE: 5564.50 @ 07:20 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 5488.93/5397.39 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support 
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the recent pause in the trend still appears to be flag formation - a bullish continuation signal that reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 5594.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 5496.53, the 20-day EMA.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat             

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $88.04 - High Apr 19    
• PRICE: $86.66 @ 07:02 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: $83.15 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. Price gains maintain the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for a climb towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. On the downside, initial support to watch is $83.15, the 50-day EMA.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Sights Are Set On Key Resistance                 

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.38 - High Jul 2   
• PRICE: $83.14 @ 07:17 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: $79.19 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Tuesday, before giving back some gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. This opens $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.19, the 50-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7               
• PRICE: $2334.9 @ 07:21 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is unchanged and is trading in consolidation mode. A bear threat remains present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2319.3. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.    

SILVER TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows                  

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21               
• PRICE: $20.902 @ 08:09 BST Jul 3 
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26              
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is recovering from its recent lows. Support at $28.659, Jun 13 low and bear trigger, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, May 13 low. Note that MA studies are in  a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a M/T uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, the May 20 high, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high. A break would be a bullish development.