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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ISRAEL
The broad coalition gov't of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is on the brink of collapse after it lost its wafer-thin one-seat majority in the Knesset. Idit Silman, a gov't whip from Bennett's own right-wing Yamina Party resigned from the gov't and joined the opposition, meaning the 120-member chamber is now split down the middle, 60-60 between gov't and opposition members.
- The Bennett gov't, formed by parties as varied as the right-wing Yamina, centre-left Labour, green Meretz, liberal Yesh Atid and Islamist Ra'am, came into office in June 2021, ousting then-PM Benjamin Netanyahu after nearly 12 years in office.
- Bennett's party has shown increasing signs of disintegration, with Silman the second MK to leave the group since its leader agreed to work with parties across the political spectrum to oust Netanyahu.
- The collapse of the gov't looks to be more a question of when rather than if. Following this the options will be either the formation of a new coalition gov't, or the dissolution of the Knesset and a snap election. Gov't could theoretically survive until March 2023, when the next budget needs approving, but this would need every single MK to maintain unity at a fractious time.
- At present, Netanyahu's Likud would not be in a position to lead a right-wing coalition, short of the 61 seats required. Polls show that in the event of a snap election, Likud would remain the largest party and be in the box seat to form a new gov't, but this would require one or more parties from current gov't to switch support.
- Comes at an important time in Israeli, regional and global geopolitics. Talks on Iran nuclear deal (opposed by gov't and opposition) has stalled but clear that US and West want a deal in order to allow Iranian oil to flow and replace supplies from Russia. Israel also has the potential to play an important role in the Russia-Ukraine war, with close ties to both the US but also Russia, it could act as a mediator or security guarantor in the future.
Chart 1. Israeli Knesset, Seats
Source: Knesset.gov.il, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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