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Berenberg View Following the BOE MPR

BOE
  • Berenberg think that the BOE's forecasts are "verging on unrealistic" and argue that the "overly optimistic updated economic projections leave the door wide open for more monetary stimulus later this year."
  • Berenberg notes "Negative rates remain far off: The BoE has managed to do a good job at getting credit to the companies and households that need it…policymakers remain satisfied, at least for now, that the stimulus and the transmission mechanism are working sufficiently well."
  • "Although the risks are clearly tilted heavily to the downside, and in contrast to the dovish communications by other central banks including the Fed and the ECB, the BoE's updated forward guidance does not show a strong bias toward further easing."
  • Berenberg expects GBP100bln more QE in November but "as it may not become very clear that the recovery is disappointing relative to the BoE's new projections until early 2021, we see some risk that that the bank may wait until early-to-mid 2021 to announce the additional stimulus."
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