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Better Than Expected IP, But Another Negative Y/Y Print

SPAIN DATA

Spanish September industrial production printed firmer than expected, with only energy (-2.7% M/M) and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3% M/M) showing negative prints on the month. The overall index (in SA terms) was +1.1% M/M (vs +0.4% cons; a 0.1pp upwardly revised -0.7% prior).

  • Capital goods (+3.6%), durable consumer goods (+3.3%) and intermediate goods (+3.1%) all rose on a monthly basis, with the tobacco pharmaceutical and metallurgy industries seeing the largest rises.
  • Despite coming in stronger than expected at -1.4% Y/Y (vs -2.4% cons; a revised -3.3% prior), the annual print was still negative, and has now been negative for 6-months running. This seems more consistent with the manufacturing PMI which has also printed below 50 the last 7 months.
  • This weakness on an annual basis has seen energy (-9.6%), durable consumer goods (-3.3%) and non-durable consumer goods (-1.8%) as the laggards, while capital goods rose +4.4% Y/Y.
  • Thus, while Spain's services sector has signalled resilience in the latest PMI data, the industrial sector continues to be pressured, despite today's better-than-expected print.
  • EGBs have begun to reverse early weakness as flagged above, with 10-year Obli yields now 6.3bps off today's peak. These moves are likely due to cross-market flows, rather than the Spanish IP print.

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