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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Betting markets on the upcoming November midterm congressional elections have recorded a notable shift in sentiment in recent days, with political bettors now viewing a Republican-controlled House of Representatives but a Democrat-controlled Senate as the most likely outcome post-election according to data from Predictit.
- Following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in the Senate last night, we could see a further shift towards the Dems in political betting and opinion polling in the days and weeks ahead. For more info on the latest legislative developments in Congress and a wide-angle lens view of what markets need to be aware of in US political risk, see our MNI US Daily Brief, published each weekday around 0830ET (1330BST, 1430CET).
- There is around a 45% implied probability of a Dem-Senate, GOP-House according to bettors, up from a 17% implied probability in late-June. The prospect of the GOP gaining both chambers has fallen from 75% to 43% in the same time frame.
- Notably, there has also been a small uptick in recent weeks of bettors shifting towards the prospect of the Democrats retaining control of both the House and the Senate. This is still seen as an unlikely event, but the implied probability of its occurrence has risen from around 9% to around 16% over the past two months.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes According to Betting Markets, %
Source: Predictit
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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