Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Political betting markets have shown a shift away from the centre-right Conservatives amid PM Rishi Sunak's party losing seats across England in local elections on 4 May (see: https://marketnews.com/difficult-local-elections-f...). According to data from Smarkets, the Conservatives have an implied probability of 20% of winning the most seats at the next general election. This is down from 25% on 3 May ahead of the elections. Meanwhile, bettors give the main opposition centre-left Labour Party an 82% implied probability of winning the most seats, up from 78.1% on 3 May (the total sums to more than 100% due to bookmaker's profit).
- Betting markets currently give a 52.4% implied probability that Labour wins an outright majority in the House of Commons, a 37.3% implied probability that there is a hung parliament with no single party holding a majority, and a 12.5% implied probability that the Conservatives hold onto a majority.
Chart.1 Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Most Seats at Next General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.