Difficult Local Elections For Conservatives Could Point To Exit At Next GE

The governing centre-right Conservative Party of PM Rishi Sunak has, according to results so far, suffered the loss of a significant number of local councils and councilors in the 4 May elections that took place across much of England. While the elections do not have a market-moving impact they will be used as a proxy indicator of the strength of the main political parties ahead of the next general election, which must take place by Jan 2025.

• At the time of writing only 63 of the 230 councils holding elections have declared, but the Conservatives have already recorded a loss of 237 councilors and lost their majority on 10 local councils.
• The nature of the losses will also be of concern to PM Sunak and his party. It has lost seats and councils to the centre-left Labour Party in areas where there are key marginal constituencies (up 124 councilors and three councils). The Conservatives have also lost seats to the centrist Liberal Democrats (up 62 councilors and 1 council) in wealthy areas of the south of England. This 'blue wall' is where many senior Conservative MPs have their seats, and will be of notable concern to the party.
• While there is still a significant amount of time until the next general election an effective 'pincer movement' from Labour in the north/midlands and the Liberal Democrats in the south, if replicated in a GE, could prove enough to deny the Conservatives a majority.