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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Political betting markets are now showing an implied probability of 42.4% that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is removed from office in 2022, overtaking the prospect of him remaining in office until 2024 or later, which has an implied probability of 40.0%. There is a growing expectation that as soon as next week the threshold of 54 letters from Conservative MPs calling for a vote of no confidence in Johnson's leadership will be reached as the fallout from 'partygate' continues to hit the PM's standing.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year PM Johnson Leaves Office, %
Source: Smarkets
- While the calliing of a confidence vote seems likely - 41 Conservatives have questioned Johnson's leadership with 28 directly calling for him to go (up one on Tuesday) - it remains unclear whether anti-Johnson Conservatives will be able to muster the 180 votes required to remove the PM in an eventual confidence vote.
- Betting markets show that there is no clear frontrunner for the position, following the collapse in Chancellor Rishi Sunak's fortunes following revelations about his wife's non-dom tax status and him holding for a time a US green card while he was in office.
- Former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who went up against Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest and is seen as a leading centrist 'One Nation Tory' in the party, is the narrow favourite in betting markets. He has an implied probability of 16.3% of becoming the next leader. In second place is incumbent Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on 12.8%. The low levels of implied probability of victory for the frontrunners shows how open a contest could be, but also how divisive for the party given many factions could come into open warfare during the lengthy process.
Chart 2. Implied Probability of Next Conservative Party Leader, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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