TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'

MNI BRIEF: Canada NDP Will Bring Nonconfidence Motion In Jan.

CANADA NDP SAYS WILL INTRODUCE NONCONFIDENCE MOTION

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 20

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY103.5 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1901 Fri; -2.13% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece to Sell Bills Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BOE APF Sales Due 6 January

MNI: BELGIUM DEC BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -13.8

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CANADA: Betting Markets Shift Against Trudeau After Fin Min Quits

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeCanadaPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

After Finance Minister and Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland's resignation on 16 Dec political betting markets have shifted against PM Justin Trudeau, showing increased implied probabilities that he could be forced from office or that the next election is brought forward. While there was speculation about Freeland's possible departure, her scathing resignation letter was a notable blow to the PM. 

  • Data from Polymarket shows a 21% implied probability that Trudeau will announce his resignation by Friday 20 December. There is a 70% implied probability that he leaves office/announces his resignation by April. Bettors assign a 72% implied probability that a general election is called earlier than 20 October 2025.
  • Data from Kalshi shows bettors assigning an 18% implied probability that a successful vote of no confidence take place in 2024, up from 1.4% before Freeland's resignation.
  • After Freeland's resignation Jagmeet Singh, leader of the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), urged Trudeau to resign. Asked on whether he would back a no-confidence motion he said ‘All tools, all options are on the table.’ Support from the NDP is the only thing that kept Trudeau's minority Liberal gov't in power in the most recent confidence vote earlier in December.
  • Given the lack of parliamentary time left in the year, it may prove more likely that Trudeau is forced out by his own Liberal caucus (Politico reports Freeland "received a standing ovation and multiple rounds of applause," at an emergency meeting of Liberal MPs after her resignation) than by an opposition confidence motion. 
248 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

After Finance Minister and Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland's resignation on 16 Dec political betting markets have shifted against PM Justin Trudeau, showing increased implied probabilities that he could be forced from office or that the next election is brought forward. While there was speculation about Freeland's possible departure, her scathing resignation letter was a notable blow to the PM. 

  • Data from Polymarket shows a 21% implied probability that Trudeau will announce his resignation by Friday 20 December. There is a 70% implied probability that he leaves office/announces his resignation by April. Bettors assign a 72% implied probability that a general election is called earlier than 20 October 2025.
  • Data from Kalshi shows bettors assigning an 18% implied probability that a successful vote of no confidence take place in 2024, up from 1.4% before Freeland's resignation.
  • After Freeland's resignation Jagmeet Singh, leader of the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), urged Trudeau to resign. Asked on whether he would back a no-confidence motion he said ‘All tools, all options are on the table.’ Support from the NDP is the only thing that kept Trudeau's minority Liberal gov't in power in the most recent confidence vote earlier in December.
  • Given the lack of parliamentary time left in the year, it may prove more likely that Trudeau is forced out by his own Liberal caucus (Politico reports Freeland "received a standing ovation and multiple rounds of applause," at an emergency meeting of Liberal MPs after her resignation) than by an opposition confidence motion.