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Betting Markets Shift Slightly Towards Dems As Biden Exits Race

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The withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the election race, announced on 21 July, has seen a small shift in political betting markets. The seemingly likelihood (but not a guarantee) that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic party nominee has seen the implied probability for Republican nominee former President Donald Trump fall from 65.1% on 21 July prior to Biden's announcement to 62.5% at the time of writing. The implied probability of the Democrats retaining the White House has risen from 34.5% to 37.1% according to data from electionbettingodds.com.

  • The relatively small shift in betting market probabilities could be seen as highlighting the baked-in expectations that Biden would withdraw from the contest after weeks of increasing pressure following his disastrous debate performance in June.
  • Betting markets show widespread expectation that, following Biden's endorsement and the confirmation that she will run, Harris will end up as the Democratic party nominee with an 85.0% implied probability. In second place is former First Lady Michelle Obama with a 5.9% implied probability.
  • There is likely to be a wait-and-see phase in betting markets as bettors wait to see the first opinion polls on the election with Harris as the presumptive Democrat nominee. There have been numerous polls carried out to date asking voters of hypothetical Trump vs. Harris scenarios, but there could be a shift in mentality or stance towards the VP now that she holds the position of presumptive nominee.

Chart 1. Political Betting Markets, Implied Probability of Win by Party, %

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The withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the election race, announced on 21 July, has seen a small shift in political betting markets. The seemingly likelihood (but not a guarantee) that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic party nominee has seen the implied probability for Republican nominee former President Donald Trump fall from 65.1% on 21 July prior to Biden's announcement to 62.5% at the time of writing. The implied probability of the Democrats retaining the White House has risen from 34.5% to 37.1% according to data from electionbettingodds.com.

  • The relatively small shift in betting market probabilities could be seen as highlighting the baked-in expectations that Biden would withdraw from the contest after weeks of increasing pressure following his disastrous debate performance in June.
  • Betting markets show widespread expectation that, following Biden's endorsement and the confirmation that she will run, Harris will end up as the Democratic party nominee with an 85.0% implied probability. In second place is former First Lady Michelle Obama with a 5.9% implied probability.
  • There is likely to be a wait-and-see phase in betting markets as bettors wait to see the first opinion polls on the election with Harris as the presumptive Democrat nominee. There have been numerous polls carried out to date asking voters of hypothetical Trump vs. Harris scenarios, but there could be a shift in mentality or stance towards the VP now that she holds the position of presumptive nominee.

Chart 1. Political Betting Markets, Implied Probability of Win by Party, %

Keep reading...Show less