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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Betting markets continue to see 2022 as the most likely date Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves office. Data from Smarkets shows a 62.9% implied probability of Johnson leaving office in 2022. If taken by quarter, Smarkets shows a 27.8% implied probability of Johnson leaving office in Q122, compared to a 20.8% implied probability of him leaving in Q222, and 15.6% in Q322.
Chart 1. Implied Probabiity of Year Boris Johnson Leaves Office, by Quarter, %
Source: Smarkets
- There has been little change in these numbers recently, following a weekend without any further revelations of lockdown breaking gatherings at Downing St.
- The independent investigation into the Downing St parties could be published as early as this week. Could spark a futher round of negative headlines for the PM, potentially resulting in bettors piling into earlier exit dates for Johnson.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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