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Bi-Weekly CPI, Jan Economic Activity Due at 1200GMT / 0800ET

MEXICO
  • Bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of March will be published at 1200GMT(0800ET) today, alongside January economic activity. The headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 4.44% y/y in the first two weeks of the month, from 4.35% previously, while the core rate is set to edge down to 4.63% y/y, from 4.66%. Meanwhile, economic activity is expected to rise by 0.2% m/m in January, following a 0.05% contraction in December. In annual terms, activity is forecast to rise by 2.6% y/y, up from 1.09% the month before.
  • The data are the first following Banxico’s 25bp interest rate cut yesterday, which was in line with expectations. In an interview after the decision, Governor Rodriguez said that future decisions would be gradual and evaluated one at a time, highlighting the Bank’s data dependency going forward. USDMXN is trading modestly higher on Friday, but has not reacted in a strong way to the decision. Key support remains at 16.6262, the Jul 28 2023 low, while on the upside initial firm resistance to watch is 16.9728, the 50-day EMA.
    • March Bi-Weekly CPI YoY, est. 4.44%, prior 4.35%
    • March Bi-Weekly Core CPI YoY, est. 4.63%, prior 4.66%
    • Jan. Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 2.60%, prior 1.09%
    • Jan. Economic Activity IGAE MoM, est. 0.20%, prior -0.05%
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