MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Start Week on Bullish Note
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Gilts Start Week on Bullish Note
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this set-up. The contract is trading at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is intact, despite yesterday’s move down. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last Friday, a clear break of this level would be a positive development.
- GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s break of resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and recent weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting a clear rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19.
- Recent gains in Gold resulted in a print above resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be viewed as a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. WTI futures are trading lower today as the contract extends the pullback from last week’s high. The move down is likely a correction. Recent gains reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term.
- The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures traded higher into the Friday close and started this week on a bullish note. Despite the latest gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Jan 21
- RES 3: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.0852 High Jun 12
- RES 1: 1.0845 High Jul 08
- PRICE: 1.0820 @ 05:51 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 1.0773/10 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
EURUSD is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. The breach of the average undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.0852, the Jun 12 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the key support at 1.0666, Jun 26 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0773, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2846/2860 High Jul 08 / High Jun 12 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2792 @ 06:10 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 1.2723/2690 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
- SUP 3: 1.2584 Low May 15
- SUP 4: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s break of resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and the next important resistance. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Apr 22. Key support lies at 1.2613, the Jun 27 low. First support is at 1.2723, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook With Resistance Intact
- RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 2: 0.8552 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.8494/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1
- PRICE: 0.8458 @ 06:17 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25
- SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP is unchanged and the cross continues to trade below its recent high on Jul 1. A key resistance at 0.8494, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this average is required to undermine the current bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger reversal. Gains since Jun 14 still appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 164.18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 161.55 @ 06:35 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 159.89 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 157.98 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 157.78 /155.72 50-day EMA / Low Jun 12
- SUP 4: 154.55 Low Jun 4
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and recent weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting a clear rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.89.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 176.93 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- PRICE: 174.63 @ 07:20 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 173.52 Low Jul 8
- SUP 2: 172.25 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.88/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
- SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16
The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross continues to appreciate. The recent break of a key resistance and bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies also highlight a clear rising trend - they remain in a bull-mode set-up. Sights are on 174.77, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 172.25, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 02
- RES 2: 0.6771 High Jan 03
- RES 1: 0.6761 High Jul 08
- PRICE: 0.6747 @ 07:59 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 0.6681 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6643 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8
AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. A continuation higher would open 0.6771 next, the Jan 3 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6643, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
- RES 1: 1.3671 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3634 @ 08:08 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD is unchanged and a short-term bearish threat remains present. The pair has recently breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3671, reinforcing a bearish condition and exposing 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish. Note that the medium-term trend signal remains bullish - for now.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25
- RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 131.56 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.00 @ 05:30 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3
- SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
- SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support
The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. A break would highlight a reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
- RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 116.319 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.010 @ 05:41 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 115.530 Low Jul 5
- SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support
The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged. The outlook remains bearish and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. The move down last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a pullback towards 115.556 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21
- RES 1: 105.570/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
- PRICE: 105.505 @ 05:38 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 105.390 Low Jul 5
- SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13
- SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7
Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. The trend signal remains bearish following last week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.570. The move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and a continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a developing bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 98.92/99.25 High Jun 25 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
- RES 1: 98.24/27 High Jun 28 / Jul 8
- PRICE: 98.12 @ 08:20 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 97.32/96.57 Low Jul 4 / 1
- SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
- SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support
Gilt futures traded higher into the Friday close and started this week on a bullish note. Despite the latest gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 98.24, the Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear of this level would be seen as a bullish development.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
- RES 1: 116.96/117.09 High Jul 8 / High Jun 21
- PRICE: 116.32 @ Close Jul 9
- SUP 1: 115.76 Low Jul 4
- SUP 2: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support
- SUP 3: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
BTP futures have recovered from 114.72, the Jul 2 low. Despite these latest gains, attention is on the bear reversal from the Jun 5 high that resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low. This highlights a resumption of the downtrend and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low. Key resistance is 117.62, the Jun 5 high. Clearance of it would be bullish. Initial firm resistance is 117.09, Jun 21 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite A Move Lower
- RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 5082.32 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
- RES 1: 5067.00 High Jul 8
- PRICE: 4943.00 @ 06:26 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is intact, despite yesterday’s move down. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last Friday, a clear break of this level would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement. A stronger reversal would instead expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 5713.31 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5700.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5668.00 3.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5645.75 High Jul 9
- PRICE: 5632.75 @ 07:25 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 5536.81/5435.69 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
- SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
- SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this set-up. The contract is trading at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5668.00, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 5536.81, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $84.16 @ 07:01 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: $83.72 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4
- SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and this week’s extension lower appears to be a correction - for now. The climb last week maintained the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for an extension towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. Initial firm support to watch is $83.72, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (Q4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $80.94 @ 07:18 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: $79.70 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
- SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
WTI futures are trading lower today as the contract extends the pullback from last week’s high. The move down is likely a correction. Recent gains reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.70, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2393.0 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $2369.6 @ 07:24 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: $2327.8/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
Recent gains in Gold resulted in a print above resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be viewed as a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. Initial support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 2327.8. A clear break of this average would instead confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and expose $2277.4, May 3 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $30.887 @ 08:12 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is trading closer to last week’s high. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.