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Bi-Weekly CPI Precedes Banxico Decision

MEXICO
  • Banxico Preview – June 2022 - 1900BST / 1400ET
  • Banxico are expected to raise rates by 75bps from 7.00 to 7.75% at the June meeting, an outcome expected by all surveyed analysts and in line with the central bank’s most recent guidance.
  • Continued pressure on core inflation alone may well have justified the more aggressive action, however, a more hawkish Federal Reserve has all but cemented the prospect of Banxico increasing their pace of tightening.
  • Beyond the rate decision, market participants will be particularly attentive to the vote split and whether the statement provides any signalling for future decisions and the potential depth of the hiking cycle.
  • Mid-month inflation and April retail sales data is due at 1200BST/0700ET and is not expected to impact today’s decision. Government measures, coordinated with the private sector to ease inflationary pressures, are not having much of an impact. Inflation is expected to be nearing its peak, but poised to remain high due to price indexation and unresolved supply shocks.
    • June Bi-Weekly CPI, est. 0.35%, prior 0.30%
    • June Bi-Weekly CPI Y/y, est. 7.73%, prior 7.72%
    • June Bi-Weekly Core CPI, est. 0.36%, prior 0.29%
    • June Bi-Weekly Core CPI Y/y, est. 7.32%, prior 7.32%
    • April Retail Sales M/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
    • April Retail Sales Y/y, est. 4.3%, prior 3.8%
  • Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas said in a tweet he was thinking about buying Citigroup Inc.’s Mexican retail business known as Citibanamex and decided not to. (BBG)
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