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Bi-Weekly Inflation Data, Banxico Minutes

MEXICO
  • Both headline and core annual CPI are expected to have fallen in the mid-February release, due at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Feb. Bi-Weekly CPI, est. 0.35%, prior 0.35%
    • Feb. Bi-Weekly CPI YoY, est. 7.80%, prior 7.88%
    • Feb. Bi- Weekly Core CPI, est. 0.39%, prior 0.36%
    • Feb. Bi-Weekly Core CPI YoY, est. 8.42%, prior 8.46%
  • Banxico have been explicit in its discomfort with high levels of core inflation. Any surprise above expectations will add concerns and support the market view that inflation may fall more slowly than policymakers are currently anticipating.
    • Most recently, central bank Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa said inflation remains high and hasn’t showed signs of having reached its inflection point yet. She stated that monetary policy will remain restrictive to bring down inflation, speaking at an agro-business event organized by Deloitte last week.
  • Focus will then turn to the release of the minutes from the February Banxico meeting where analysts will potentially look for details on how restrictive monetary policy should be, the real business cycle dynamics and implications related to the anticipation of a deeper FOMC hiking cycle.
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