Bid At The Re-Open

TYH2 +0-06 early on, printing 126-27+. The contract has pushed through Friday’s best levels as regional participants react to Friday’s risk negative developments. A reminder that Tsy futures will close early on Monday, while cash markets are closed until Tuesday’s Asia-Pac session, owing to the observance of the President’s Day holiday in the U.S.

• All in all, the weekend hasn’t seen much in the way of “net” change when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine standoff, with western powers still on heightened alert re: the situation (the U.S. continues to warn of the likelihood of an attack in the coming days). Note that the trilateral contact group, Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE, will meet on Monday.
• A quick reminder that Friday’s Asia-Pac session was headlined by news that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken would meet with Russian counterpart Lavrov in the coming week, which provided a risk-on feel into European trade. However, that faded as we worked through the day, with cash Tsys running little changed to ~5bp richer come the bell, bull flattening. Stories including the evacuation of women and children from the Donbas region, several notable explosions in Ukraine and the Biden administration’s continued assertions re: the likelihood of an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine helped to underpin the space during NY hours.
• Finally, Friday Fedspeak from the likes of Brainard, Williams & Evans continued to push back against the need for a 50bp rate hike at the March FOMC.
• The latest round of LPR fixings from the PBoC headlines the Asia-Pac docket on Monday.