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Bid Gathers Pace Ahead of US Coming In

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull flattened as they become increasingly bid ahead of the US coming in, against a backdrop of modestly softer oil and equities flat (S&P E-Minis) to down (Europe).
  • 2Y yields are -1.4bps at 0.675%, 5Y at -3.2bps at 1.222%, 10Y at -3.9bps at 1.434% and 30Y at -4.1bps at 1.761%.
  • The 2Y has pulled back slightly from yesterday’s highest print since Mar’20 but remains elevated and still above the immediate pre-Omicron high.
  • TYH2 futures have rallied 6 ticks over the past hour or so to 130-21+ after a slow start to the day, as they partially reverse the sell-off from the past two days. First support is seen at 130-09 (20-day EMA) and initial resistance at 131-16 (Dec 3 high).
  • Today’s data are limited to weekly mortgage apps (0830ET) and then JOLTS for Oct (1000ET), with attention mainly on Friday’s CPI. The Fed is in media blackout ahead of the Dec 15 meeting.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $7.375B (1030ET).
  • Further Tsy note issuance with $36B of 10Y (1300ET) before tomorrow’s 30Y. Yesterday’s 3Y auction went smoothly, with the yield stopping just below market expectations.
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