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Biden Edges Ahead Of Trump In 538 Forecast And Polling Average

US
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US President Joe Biden has edged back ahead of former President Donald Trump in the 538 presidential election forecast model. The move comes on the back of some strong polling for Biden and indicates that the 538 model continues to project that the political environment favours Biden despite Trump's strength in swing states.

  • G. Elliot Morris at 538 notes: "Last week, Biden “pulled ahead” of Trump in our averages of national presidential election polls for the first time this cycle. I put “pulled ahead” in scare quotes because his margin topped out at just +0.3 percentage points — squarely within our model’s uncertainty interval for the state of public opinion today."
  • Morris adds: "The rising national tide has lifted Biden’s boat in Michigan and Wisconsin, too, though Trump still edges him out in Pennsylvania. Our model’s current estimate of the gap between the winning candidate’s margin nationally and in the Electoral College is currently D+1.4 points — meaning Biden needs to win the national popular vote by 1.4 points to be favored to win a majority of electoral votes."
  • The 538 model is worth flagging as it is throwing up an outlier forecast at this stage. The Economist model currently projects that Trump has, "about a 2 in 3 chance," of winning. The Hill/DDHQ model, "currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning the Presidency."
  • MNI's Political Risk team analyses the presidential election models here.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast

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US President Joe Biden has edged back ahead of former President Donald Trump in the 538 presidential election forecast model. The move comes on the back of some strong polling for Biden and indicates that the 538 model continues to project that the political environment favours Biden despite Trump's strength in swing states.

  • G. Elliot Morris at 538 notes: "Last week, Biden “pulled ahead” of Trump in our averages of national presidential election polls for the first time this cycle. I put “pulled ahead” in scare quotes because his margin topped out at just +0.3 percentage points — squarely within our model’s uncertainty interval for the state of public opinion today."
  • Morris adds: "The rising national tide has lifted Biden’s boat in Michigan and Wisconsin, too, though Trump still edges him out in Pennsylvania. Our model’s current estimate of the gap between the winning candidate’s margin nationally and in the Electoral College is currently D+1.4 points — meaning Biden needs to win the national popular vote by 1.4 points to be favored to win a majority of electoral votes."
  • The 538 model is worth flagging as it is throwing up an outlier forecast at this stage. The Economist model currently projects that Trump has, "about a 2 in 3 chance," of winning. The Hill/DDHQ model, "currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning the Presidency."
  • MNI's Political Risk team analyses the presidential election models here.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast

Keep reading...Show less