Biden Nears 80% Implied Probability Of Withdrawing From Race, Polymarket

Two prediction markets concerning US President Joe Biden's re-election bid have recorded new highs in the last hours, according to Polymarket.

• Polymarket notes that Biden currently has a 79% implied probability of withdrawing from the race and has hit a new low of 6% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
• Vice President Kamala Harris is now given a 61% implied probability of taking the Democratic Party nomination and a 35% chance of winning the election, should she take the nomination.
• The betting market data should be treated with caution, as markets have been exceptionally volatile since the June 27 presidential debate dismantled much of the convention wisdom of the election cycle.
• However, prediction markets reflect credible reporting suggesting that a concerted push is underway to prod Biden towards the exit as soon as this weekend.
• Although there has been a collapse of confidence in Biden's candidacy, national polling still points towards a close race, well within a range of polling gap a candidate could hope to bridge in the final four months of campaigning.
• Moreover, Democrat Senate candidates continue to outperform Biden across all races, suggesting that the Democrat agenda remains broadly popular, despite concerns with Biden at the top of the ticket.