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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Parsing the 2024 presidential election through polling has become more difficult since the presidential debate. Two recent swing state surveys show that polls are now throwing up seemingly contradictory results.
- A Washington Postsurvey found that “Donald Trump is leading in 6 of the 7 battleground states,” with Pennsylvania and Michigan falling within the polling margin of error.
- A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey found that Biden “registered his best showing yet” in a poll of battleground states, with a strong lead in Michigan but a significant deficit to Trump in Pennsylvania.
- The two surveys also show a major polling gap in Georgia – a state in which Biden has struggled in recent months amid concerns over the strength of his support amongst Black voters.
- Bloomberg notes: “[Trump] led [Biden] by only 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in the critical states needed to win the November election. That's the smallest gap since the poll began last October.”
- Bloomberg notes in accompanying analysis that their findings, “run counter to some recent national polls, which showed a worsening picture for Biden. The poll could turn out to be a statistical outlier,” a firm sign that pollsters are struggling to calibrate their polling to the new post-debate political reality.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Swing State Polling Average
Source: Washington Post
Figure 2: Presidential Election Swing State Polling
Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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