Biden's EO On Border Security Could Neuter Trump's Strength On Immigration

President Biden will today sign a long-signalled executive order (EO) allowing the White House to close the US-Mexico border if migrant crossings excede 2,500 a week.

• The EO could reduce Biden's political vulnerability on the border ahead of the presidential election and defang one of former President Donald Trump's main lines of attack for June 27 presidential debate.
• Polls suggestthat voters tend to lean towards Trump’s hardline immigration policy which proposes mass deportations of undocumented migrants. However, according to Gallup, the number of voters reporting immigration as their primary problem dropped in May, likely reflecting renewed concerns about the economy and inflation.
• The EO comes less than two weeks after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) second attempt at legislating a bipartisan border security bill was tanked by Republicans and two days after the Mexico election win for Claudia Sheinbaum, who has indicated her administration will continue working with US authorities. Both of which could strengthen Biden on the issue slightly.
• The EO will draw criticism from progressive Democrats and migrant advocacy groups, potentially exacerbating a problem for Biden with voters in Sun Belt border states like Arizona and Nevada where Biden is underperforming.
• Rep Sylvia Garcia (D-TX) said the order would hurt Biden with Hispanic voters: “There’s enough voters out there generally that don’t want to see any of the Trump-era policies back...”
• Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) said: “It’s not going to help the president politically because I don’t think Fox News is ever going to give him any credit.”