Biden's Weakness Amongst Young Voters May Be Overstated

Split Ticket has publishedindependent polling analysis – to be released in full next week - on the voting intention of young voters, concluding that – contrary assertions from some pollsters – young people are unlikely to flip to Trump in November.

• Split Ticket writes: “Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom many public polls have begun to portray as exceptionally Trump-curious …if these polls are accurately capturing the movement across age groups, it would be nothing short of earth-shattering."
• Split Ticket notes that, “Biden is deeply unpopular with young voters, as 68% of them view him unfavorably. On the face of it, Biden’s standing with this group looks a lot like Donald Trump’s, who sits at a very similar 70% unfavorable rating.”
• However, as Split Ticket notes: “…voters under the age of 30 are significantly more likely to hold a “strongly unfavorable” view of Trump than they are of Biden. In fact, a whopping 61% of young adults have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump, compared to the 44% [for Biden].”
• Split Ticket concludes: “At the end of the day, though, we’re still not seeing any evidence that young voters are especially inclined to vote for Donald Trump..."

Figure 1: Young Voter Opinions on Biden and Trump

Source Split Ticket

Figure 2: How Young “Double Haters” Say They’d Vote?

Source Split Ticket